Friday, 6 April 2012

Council Elections - Predictions

Being Easter, and with a lovely raw throat for company, I thought I'd indulge myself in a little bit of political prediction for the coming elections in May.

Using the same scientific approach as I use for my Lottery numbers - dead reckoning - expect some excellent tips. Just don't bet your mortgage payments on them.

I've excluded the Shetland, Orkney and Western Isles as they remain in independent control, and I cannot see any change from that. In addition, I think Gail Sheridan will win a seat. And no doubt there might be the odd independent securing a seat on specific local issues.

You also have to remember that the 2007 elections had massive problems with voters confused by having local and national elections on the same day, plus ballot papers that could have papered my house.

The calculation is that the Lib Dems will lose most votes, with the SNP taking the largest share from them. The Conservatives will remain stable, and I think the Greens will stay roughly the same, since environmental issues are secondary to economic ones.

However, while the overall numbers will change, I there will be some substantial changes at individual city and town level.

Glasgow is the big prize for the SNP, and I think they will take it, slaughtering Labour at the same time.

Edinburgh I think the SNP are in for a shock, and over the trams (ignore the arguments for now).

Aberdeen is more difficult. The Union Terrace Gardens and Trump's golf course has caused a bit of friction, so it might remain in a similar state as for 2007.

North Lanarkshire will remain Labour.

South Lanarkshire will remain in NOC, but the SNP might make gains. Linda Fabiani thumped Andy Kerr, and she is a popular politician who takes a genuine interest in the constituency. If the SNP could take this council it would be a bigger shock than Glasgow.

The other main targets for the SNP has to be the councils where they are in a coalition with the Lib Dems. Those are the ones they should gain control.

But council elections are more tricky than parliamentary ones. Local issues play a huge part, as do the personalities of the councillors, of whom many have held their seat for a number of years.

Now, will I risk a tenner?

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